SCREENING FOR A CHRONIC DISEASE: A MULTIPLE STAGE DURATION MODEL WITH PARTIAL OBSERVABILITY
构建动态多阶段持续时间模型，研究早期发现糖尿病如何延缓下肢并发症和死亡，并评估两种筛查政策的经济价值。
We estimate a dynamic multistage duration model to investigate how early detection of diabetes can delay the onset of lower extremity complications and death. We allow for partial observability of the disease stage, unmeasured heterogeneity, and endogenous timing of diabetes screening. Timely diagnosis appears important. We evaluate the effectiveness of two potential policies to reduce the monetary costs of frequent screening in terms of lost longevity. Compared to the status quo, the more restrictive policy yields an implicit value for an additional year of life of about $50,000, whereas the less restrictive policy implies a value of about $120,000.