Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand
基于新西兰企业调查，发现尽管实行了25年通胀目标制，企业经理人的通胀预期仍缺乏锚定，表现为对央行目标不了解、预测分散且波动大。
We study the (lack of) anchoring of inflation expectations in New Zealand using a new survey of firms. Managers of these firms display little anchoring of inflation expectations, despite twenty-five years of inflation targeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, a fact which we document along a number of dimensions. Managers are unaware of the identities of central bankers as well as central banks' objectives, and are generally poorly informed about recent inflation dynamics. Their forecasts of future inflation reflect high levels of uncertainty and are extremely dispersed as well as volatile at both short and long-run horizons. Similar results can be found in the U.S. using currently available surveys as shown in