Better at Home than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France
利用法国电子监控逐步推广的准实验，发现将短期监禁转为电子监控可降低5年后累犯概率6-7个百分点，对政策制定者和法官有参考价值。
Many countries have recently adopted electronic monitoring (EM) as an alternative sentence to reduce incarceration while maintaining public safety. However, the empirical evidence on the effects of EM on recidivism (relative to prison) is very scarce worldwide. Our empirical strategy exploits the incremental rollout of EM in France, which started as a local experiment in four courts in 2000–2001 and was later adopted by an increasing number of courts. Our instrumental variables estimates show that fully converting prison sentences into EM has long-lasting beneficial effects on recidivism, with estimated reductions in the probability of reconviction of 6–7 percentage points (9–11 percent) after 5 years. The presence of heterogeneous effects suggests that both rehabilitation and deterrence are important factors in reducing long-term recidivism and that EM can be a very cost-effective alternative to short prison sentences.