Plague in seventeenth-century Europe and the decline of Italy: an epidemiological hypothesis
本文比较17世纪鼠疫在欧洲各地的不同影响，发现意大利受灾最重，并引入“领土传染渗透度”这一新变量，认为鼠疫导致的人口危机和经济冲击是意大利相对衰落的关键原因。
This article compares the impact of plague across Europe during the seventeenth century. It shows that the disease affected southern Europe much more severely than the north. Italy was by far the area worst struck. Using a new database, the article introduces an epidemiological variable that has not been considered in the literature: territorial pervasiveness of the contagion. This variable is much more relevant than local mortality rates in accounting for the different regional impact of plague. Epidemics, and not economic hardship, generated a severe demographic crisis in Italy during the seventeenth century. Plague caused a shock to the economy of the Italian peninsula that might have been key in starting its relative decline compared with the emerging northern European countries. Copyright , Oxford University Press.