The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy
使用合成控制法估计阿拉伯之春导致突尼斯2011-2013年GDP分别损失5.5%、5.1%和6.4%，并发现投资是主要传导渠道。
This paper uses Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the “Arab Spring.” The results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Tunisia’s economic growth. Moreover, this paper finds that investment was the main channel through which the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring.