Crop-Based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty
研究了原油价格和作物产量不确定性下，生物燃料生产任务对玉米、大豆和柳枝稷价格的影响，发现土地竞争推高作物价格，但原油价格主导行业盈利。
This paper examines the role of uncertain crude oil prices, uncertain crop yields, and competition for acreage on corn, soybean, and switchgrass prices under biofuel production mandates. We find enforcement of the cellulosic mandate is costly in that it raises equilibrium prices of all three crops through competition for acreage. However, crude oil prices largely determine industry profitability even in the face of high crop prices. Further we find that uncertainty in crude oil prices and crop yields causes higher corn, soybean, and switchgrass prices compared to a baseline with no uncertainty. <i></i>