Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability
用马尔可夫转换理性预期新凯恩斯模型分析石油价格波动对美国宏观经济不稳定的影响，发现石油价格冲击是经济波动的常见来源，而宏观经济结构性冲击波动下降是“大缓和”的主要原因，更鹰派的货币政策也有贡献。
We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing US macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.