The Timing of Monetary Policy Shocks
发现货币政策冲击发生在年初时对产出的影响大而快，发生在年末时影响很小，并用工资合同在不同季度不均匀分布来解释这一现象。
A vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on output. We show that this finding results from the aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the timing of the shock. When the monetary policy shock takes place in the first two quarters of the year, the response of output is quick, sizable, and dies out at a relatively fast pace. In contrast, output responds very little when the shock takes place in the third or fourth quarter. We propose a potential explanation for the differential responses based on uneven staggering of wage contracts across quarters. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that a realistic amount of uneven staggering can generate differences in output responses quantitatively similar to those found in the data.