Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France
通过嵌入2012年法国总统选举候选人奥朗德竞选活动中的全国性实地实验，首次估计了上门拉票对实际选举结果的影响，发现拉票增加了奥朗德在第一轮投票中的得票率，并贡献了其第二轮胜利的四分之一。
This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized door-to-door visits at the individual level, the scale of this campaign (five million doors knocked) enabled randomization by precinct, the level at which vote shares are recorded administratively. Visits did not affect turnout, but increased Hollande's vote share in the first round and accounted for one-fourth of his victory margin in the second. Visits' impact persisted in later elections, suggesting a lasting persuasion effect.