Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
检验了1968年以来79位预测者对实际GNP增长、通胀和失业等六个变量的季度多期预测是否存在偏差和序列相关误差，发现通胀的系统性误差远高于其他变量，且组合预测优于多数个体预测。
The article presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a collection of time series of quarterly multiperiod forecasts for six variables including real GNP growth, inflation, and unemployment. The analysis covers responses by 79 frequent participants in economic outlook surveys conducted regularly since 1968. It shows much greater incidence of apparently systematic errors for inflation than for the other variables. Also, the tests are more favorable to composite group forecasts than to most of the individual forecast sets.