Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation
利用美国总统选举的州级投票数据，发现选民投票率与预测的竞争激烈程度正相关，并构建了一个“追随领袖”模型来解释政治参与的策略性成分。结构估计支持该模型，例如州级预测竞争度每增加1%，会刺激领袖努力，进而使投票率提高0.34%。
Using state-by-state voting data for U.S. presidential elections, we observe that voter turnout is a positive function of predicted closeness. To explain the strategic component of political participation, we develop a follow-the-leader model. Political leaders expend effort according to their chance of being pivotal, which depends on the expected closeness of the race (at both state and national levels) and how voters respond to their effort. Structural estimation supports this model. For example, a 1-percent increase in the predicted closeness at the state level stimulates leaders' efforts, which increases turnout by 0.34 percent.