A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations
构建了一个通胀与基于调查的长期通胀预测的双变量模型，用于估计趋势通胀与长期预测之间的关系，发现长期预测有助于改进通胀估计和预测，但不应简单等同。
Abstract This paper develops a bivariate model of inflation and a survey‐based long‐run forecast of inflation that allows for the estimation of the link between trend inflation and the long‐run forecast. Thus, our model allows for the possibilities that long‐run forecasts taken from surveys can be equated with trend inflation, that the two are completely unrelated, or anything in between. Using a variety of inflation measures and survey‐based forecasts for several countries, we find that long‐run forecasts can provide substantial help in refining estimates and fitting and forecasting inflation. It is less helpful to simply equate trend inflation with the long‐run forecasts.