COMMUNICATION ABOUT FUTURE POLICY RATES IN THEORY AND PRACTICE: A SURVEY
综述了中央银行沟通未来政策利率的理论依据（通胀目标制或前瞻性指引），总结了实际沟通做法和有效性证据，指出理论假设央行承诺而实践中央行通常不承诺，未来研究需考虑这一脱节。
Abstract We discuss the theoretical rationale for central bank communication about future policy rates, either as part of inflation targeting or in the form of forward guidance. We also summarize both actual central bank communication about future policy rates and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these types of communication. We argue that there is a disconnect between the theory and practice of forward guidance, as theory assumes commitment on the part of the central bank, while in practice central banks generally do not commit. Future theoretical research on forward guidance should therefore take the absence of commitment by central banks into account.