Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process
研究发现近期家庭和专业人士的通胀调查预测准确性下降，简单自回归模型反而更准，同时通胀过程发生改变，家庭未察觉这一变化，专业人士对整体通胀的预测有调整但对核心通胀无变化。
The accuracy of inflation forecasts obtained from household and professional surveys has deteriorated noticeably of late, to the extent that a simple autoregressive specification outperforms survey forecasts. The decline in (absolute and relative) accuracy has taken place at about the same time as an apparent change in the inflation process. Projections of household forecasts on realized inflation suggests that households have not recognized this change. For the professionals, projections of expected inflation on headline inflation have changed, but on core inflation have not. By contrast, projections of realized headline inflation on core have changed sharply.