Agricultural Development vs. Industrialization: Effects of Trade
本文用一个动态一般均衡模型研究贸易如何影响农业、制造业和服务业三部门的经济结构，进而影响整体增长率。发现只生产初级品和服务时，贸易在低收入阶段促进增长，高收入阶段则减缓增长；若生产制造业和服务业，贸易对增长影响不大。
The question addressed in this paper is how trade affects the composition of the national product, thus having an effect on the overall growth rate of the economy. The paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with three different consumption goods: agriculture, manufactures, and services (nontradable). The main finding is that if the country produces only primaries and services, the effects of trade on growth are mixed. Trade helps growth at low levels of income but at higher levels trade slows the country's growth. If the country produces manufactures and services, the effect of trade on growth is not substantial.