The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II
研究了1870年代至二战期间五个东南欧国家商业周期的同步性，发现1913年前存在泛欧周期，两次大战间形成以德国为中心的区域周期，贸易是主要驱动力。
Relying on dynamic factor business cycle indices for five South-East European countries (Austria(-Hungary), Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, and Serbia/Yugoslavia), we document steadily increasing synchronization as part of a pan-European business cycle before 1913 and the emergence of a regional business cycle (including and radiating from Germany) in the interwar period. These dynamics were largely driven by trade, involving initially England, France, and Germany but increasingly centered on Germany. Our results also show that the Balkan countries traveled a long way from an economic backwater of Europe in the 1870s to a much more integrated part of the European economy six decades later.