The Role of Systematic Fed Errors in Explaining the Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Note
指出，关于美联储每周货币供应公告对利率影响的实证研究可能因未充分考虑美联储系统性估计错误而得出有偏结论，包括公告后利率变化与预期成分正相关以及1979年政策变化后的结构性变化。
Empirical studies of the effects of the Federal Reserve's weekly money-supply announcements on interest rates have tended to find that interest-rate changes following these announcements are positively correlated with the anticipated component of the announcement. These studies also have tended to find structural changes in interest-rate responses to money-supply announcements following the Fed's October 1979 policy changes. This paper suggests that these conclusions may simply reflect a failure to adequately account for the presence of systematic errors in the Fed's weekly estimates of the money supply. Copyright 1989 by Ohio State University Press.