Money and Prices in a Small Economy
将理性预期的数量论应用于芬兰数据,发现汇率灵活性使货币领先收入八个季度,且稳定货币供给政策导致通胀与实际活动负相关,表明货币自主性高于以往研究。
A simple rational expectations version of the quantity theory is applied to recent monthly and quarterly Finnish data on prices, money and related variables. It is found that, apparently because of sufficient flexibility of the exchange rate, money precedes income with a lead of up to eight quarters. In sharp contrast with previous Phillips-curve models, the Bank of Finland's stable money-supply policy causes a negative relationship between inflation and real activity. When contrasted with models based on international transmission of inflation over fixed exchange rates, the monetary model performs surprisingly well. The results appear to indicate greater monetary autonomy than that suggested by previous studies.