Global food prices and domestic inflation: some cross-country evidence
研究全球食品价格冲击对多国国内通胀的影响,发现发达经济体影响较小且随时间减弱,而新兴和发展中经济体影响更大,可能与食品消费份额及通胀预期锚定程度有关。
We study the impact of global food price shocks on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, a 10% increase in global food inflation raises domestic inflation by about 0.5 percentage point after a year; however, the impact has declined over time and become less persistent. The global food price shocks of the 2000s had a much bigger impact on domestic inflation in emerging and developing economies than in advanced economies. This could reflect the smaller share of food in the consumption baskets in advanced economies. We also provide evidence that inflation expectations are more anchored in advanced than in emerging economies, which could also explain the smaller impact on inflation from global food price shocks.