On the size of the government spending multiplier in the euro area
在欧元区动态随机一般均衡模型中，发现忽略私人消费与政府支出的互补/替代关系、内生政府支出政策及消费习惯等关键因素，会导致政府支出乘数估计出现较大偏差，从而解释了乘数估计值范围过宽的现象。
This article addresses the existence of a wide range of estimated government spending multipliers in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Our estimation results and counter-factual exercises provide evidence that omitting the interactions of key ingredients at the estimation stage (such as Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability between private consumption and government expenditures, endogenous government spending policy, and general habits in consumption) paves the way for potentially large biases. We argue that uncertainty on the quantitative assessments of fiscal programmes could partly originate from these biases.