Malthus in Sweden
利用19世纪瑞典跨县数据，发现粮食价格与收成负相关，且收成好坏影响出生、结婚和死亡率；价格变化对生育和结婚的影响在制造业占比高的县更大。
Abstract This paper presents some new and unique cross‐county data from 19th‐century Sweden over birth, death, and marriage rates, grain prices, and harvests. Local grain prices correlate negatively with local harvests, suggesting imperfectly integrated food markets. The so‐called positive and preventive checks are also present: good local harvests are associated with high birth and marriage rates, and low death rates. We also find that the fertility and marriage effects from changes in prices – but not harvests – are greater in counties that rely more on manufacturing, consistent with an open‐economy model of fertility choice, where agents earn income from both agriculture and manufacturing.