Learning About Unstable, Publicly Unobservable Payoffs
研究在投资回报随机变化且仅当投资时才可观测的情况下，人们是遵循贝叶斯学习还是强化学习，发现参与者主要采用贝叶斯方式，但若不提醒注意变化则会放弃，这对金融市场中谁有激励去提醒投资者提出了问题。
Neoclassical finance assumes that investors are Bayesian. In many realistic situations, Bayesian learning is challenging. Here, we consider investment opportunities that change randomly, while payoffs are observable only when invested. In a stylized version of the task, we wondered whether performance would be affected if one were to follow reinforcement learning principles instead. The answer is a definite yes. When asked to perform our task, participants overwhelmingly learned in a Bayesian way. They stopped being Bayesians, though, when not nudged into paying attention to contingency shifts. This raises an issue for financial markets: who has the incentive to nudge investors?