Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?
用协整和格兰杰因果检验，分析四个发达市场经济体的出口、生产率与贸易条件的关系，发现除英国外，三者长期共同变动。
The comovement between exports and productivity observed in many countries suggests a direct link between these two variables. This paper tries to establish whether such a causal link exists for four developed market economies, using co-integration and Granger-causality techniques. These techniques offer a means to overcome serious problems encountered in previous attempts to examine this relationship, while recent trade theory suggests that the relationship between trade and productivity is fundamentally ambiguous. Both reasons call for more empirical evidence. The findings of the econometric analysis suggest that exports, productivity and the terms of trade move together in the long run in all countries except the United Kingdom.