动态客观与主观理性

Dynamic objective and subjective rationality

Theoretical Economics · 2019
被引 2
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

该模型用两种偏好关系刻画决策者,客观理性偏好可说服他人,主观理性偏好则不能;研究在动态贝叶斯框架下如何更新先验概率,为序贯一致的最大最小偏好和完全贝叶斯更新提供新基础。

Abstract

The objective and subjective rationality model characterizes decision makers (DMs) by two preference relations over uncertainty acts and provides a dual perspective of rationality. The first preference reflects choices that are rational in an objective sense and the second ones express choices labeled subjective rational. While an objective ranking means that the DM can convince others that she is right in making them, in a subjective choice the DM cannot be convinced that she is wrong in making them. Objective and subjective preferences are represented, respectively, by a Bewleyís unanimity rule and a maxmin expected utility, both representations holding the same set of multiple priors. We propose and axiomatize a dynamic Bayesian model for the objective and subjective rationality theory. The static model specifies some set of prior probabilities, which should be then updated in the light of new and relevant information. We provide two new axioms on the interplay of unconditional objective relations and conditional subjective preferences. Such axioms ensure that a conditional subjective relation is also a maxmin expected utility preference and the corresponding set of priors is derived from the full Bayesian updating, i.e., it is generated by the prior-by-prior updating of all unconditional probabilities. Our main result thus provides a novel foundation for sequential consistent maxmin preferences as well as for the full Bayesian updating. Finally, we study the dynamics of objective preferences and its relations with our main result.

动态客观主观理性贝叶斯更新最大最小期望效用Bewley一致性规则