Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement
通过构建多国多部门动态模型并校准双边投入产出数据，研究发现中间品贸易对商品产出的周期联动影响显著，但对服务产出影响微弱，且联动程度取决于贸易弹性、投入品替代性等因素。
Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multisector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade-comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comovement in gross output than real value added. Goods comovement is higher when (i) the aggregate trade elasticity is low, (ii) inputs are more substitutable than final goods, and (iii) inputs are substitutable for primary factors.