Decomposing Trends in Inequality in Earnings into Forecastable and Uncertain Components
研究了美国经济中工资不平等上升的原因，将其分解为可预测部分和不确定性部分，发现低技能工人不平等上升主要源于不确定性，而高技能工人上升幅度较小。
A substantial empirical literature documents the rise in wage inequality in the American economy. It is silent on whether the increase in inequality is due to components of earnings that are predictable by agents or whether it is due to greater uncertainty facing them. These two sources of variability have different consequences for both aggregate and individual welfare. Using data on two cohorts of American males we find that a large component of the rise in inequality for less skilled workers is due to uncertainty. For skilled workers, the rise is less pronounced.