If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years
研究1920-1930年代货币投机的风险与回报，对比两种技术交易策略（套利和动量）与凯恩斯的基本面交易表现，发现技术策略在1920年代盈利更高，但1930年代所有策略表现均不佳。
This article explores the risks and returns to currency speculation during the 1920s and 1930s. We study the performance of two well-known technical trading strategies (carry and momentum) and compare them with that of a fundamentals-based trader: John Maynard Keynes. Technical strategies were highly profitable during the 1920s and even outperformed Keynes. In the 1930s, however, both technical strategies and Keynes performed relatively poorly. While our results reveal the existence of profitable opportunities for currency traders in the interwar years, they suggest that such profits were necessary compensation for enduring the substantial risks that all strategies entailed.