Measuring House Price Bubbles
比较了六种衡量房价泡沫的方法，发现简单的房价租金比在事后和实时中都能可靠识别泡沫，对政策制定有重要参考价值。
Abstract Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this article provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to assess their ability to identify bubbles as they form. In view of the complexity of the asset pricing approach, we conclude that a simple price–rent ratio measure is a reliable method both ex post and in real time. Our results have important policy implications because a reliable signal that a bubble is forming could be used to avoid further house price increases.