灾难性修复:气候变化影响下的周期性贬值与积累

Catastrophic fixes: cyclical devaluation and accumulation through climate change impacts

Environment and Planning A Economy and Space · 2015
被引 84
ABS 3

中文导读

研究了(再)保险业如何通过气候变化引发的灾难损失,周期性解决资本过剩危机,并指出这可能导致高风险高保费的分裂保护主义,而非更适应气候的建筑环境。

Abstract

This paper investigates the scales and temporalities through which climate change impacts may be rendered into socio-ecological fixes for crises of overaccumulation within the (re)insurance industry. The property insurance and catastrophe reinsurance sectors are notorious for their cyclicity, with prices and returns oscillating dramatically between “soft” and “hard” markets. The problem of overaccummulation in soft market periods is often resolved by the destruction of reinsurers' capital reserves through huge catastrophic losses. This is typically followed by the revision of catastrophe models and reestimation of exposed values, processes which absorb additional (re)insurance capital and provide technoscientific legitimacy for raising rates. Reframing climate change risk in terms of ecologically-sourced devaluation suggests that, rather than posing an immediate existential threat, in the short to medium term the uncertain impacts of global climate change might constitute a recurrent “catastrophic fix” for particular segments of financial capital. This highlights both the productivity of uncertainty about climate change impacts and the limits of presuming that the operations of the private insurance market can produce a built environment more adapted to climate change. Rather, the more likely outcome is splintering protectionism: a patchwork of high risk, high reward areas where insurance is available only to those with the ability to pay rising premiums, leaving the state to manage the retreat and relocation of less remunerative properties and populations.

气候变化经济学保险与再保险金融资本积累环境风险