Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?
批判综合评估模型（IAMs）在估算社会碳成本和评估减排政策时存在根本缺陷，如贴现率随意、影响描述缺乏依据、无法预测灾难性后果，认为这些模型对政策分析几乎无用。
Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models' descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading.