Does agglomeration discourage fertility? Evidence from the Japanese General Social Survey 2000–2010
利用日本家庭数据，量化大城市拥挤效应如何影响已婚夫妇的生育行为，发现城市规模越大，30岁夫妇平均生育数越低，但到49岁时差距缩小，表明大城市夫妇推迟生育。
This study employs Japanese household-level data to quantify the extent to which congestion diseconomy in large cities affects married couples’ fertility behavior. The theoretical model of this study emphasizes the importance of controlling for preference heterogeneity in the demand for children. The baseline quantification shows that, all else equal, a 10-fold difference in city size generates a spatial variation of −22.13% in the average number of children born to couples aged 30 and a spatial variation of −6.07% at age 49. The narrowing of the gap suggests that the young married couples in larger cities delay childbearing.