The Impact of Degree Duration on Higher Education Participation: Evidence from a Large‐scale Natural Experiment
利用意大利博洛尼亚改革作为自然实验，研究发现将学位从4-5年缩短为3年制本科加2年制硕士后，大学一年级入学率提高了14.5-17.3个百分点，且未损害学生保留率和按时毕业率。
Abstract This paper investigates the effects on enrolment, retention rate and on‐time graduation of a nationwide Bologna Process reform introduced in Italy to establish BAs with a duration of three years, followed by optional second‐tier degrees of two years, in place of single‐tier degrees of four or five years. The analysis exploits exogenous delay of treatment conditions and the unique availability of microdata that cover the universe of the departments. We estimate that the reform boosted first‐year enrolments by 14.5–17.3 percentage points, compared to a counterfactual status of no reform. This enrolment shift was due to participation gains rather than substitution effects, and it is likely to have persisted in the longer term. Moreover, no trade‐off between increased participation and deteriorated retention and on‐time graduation emerged.