Learning and the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance
研究预期形成方式如何影响央行前瞻指引的效果，发现理性预期假设会高估危机时期前瞻指引的作用，而适应性学习模型下的效果更弱。
Abstract This paper examines the link between expectations formation and the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance. A standard New Keynesian model is extended to include forward guidance shocks in the monetary policy rule. Agents form expectations about future macro‐economic variables via either the standard rational expectations hypothesis or an adaptive learning model. The results show that the assumption of rational expectations overstates the effects of forward guidance relative to adaptive learning during an economic crisis. Thus, if monetary policy is based on a model with rational expectations, the results of forward guidance could be potentially misleading.