Plague and long‐term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities
本文利用1575-1700年间56个城市的瘟疫死亡率数据，发现1629-30年疫情严重冲击的城市陷入了更低的增长路径，并对城市人口规模和城市化率造成长期损害，支持了17世纪瘟疫触发意大利经济相对衰退的假说。
Abstract This article aims to analyse the effects of plague on the long‐term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629–30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 56 cities covering the period c . 1575–1700, an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629–30 plague were displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused long‐lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth‐century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.