The cost of climate changes: : Ecosystem services and wildland fire
研究用美国森林服务局模型预测2013-2115年野火变化，通过燃料管理成本估算温室气体减排政策在保护地生态系统服务上的效益，现值约35亿美元。
Little research has focused on the economic impact associated with climate-change induced wildland fire on natural ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. We examine changes in wildland fire patterns based on the U.S. Forest Service's MC1 dynamic global vegetation model from 2013 to 2115 under two pre-defined scenarios: a reference (i.e., business-as-usual) and a greenhouse gas mitigation policy scenario. We construct a habitat equivalency model under which fuels management activities, actions commonly undertaken to reduce the frequency and/or severity of wildland fire, are used to compensate for climate change-induced losses in ecosystem services on conservation lands in the contiguous U.S. resulting from wildland fire. The benefit of the greenhouse gas mitigation policy is equal to the difference in fuels management costs between the reference and policy scenarios. Results suggest present value ecosystem service benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the average of $3.5 billion (2005 dollars, assuming a three percent discount rate). Our analysis highlights the importance of considering loss of ecosystem services when evaluating the impacts of alternative greenhouse gas mitigation policies