保险索赔相依频率与严重程度的广义线性模型

Generalized linear models for dependent frequency and severity of insurance claims

Insurance Mathematics and Economics · 2016
被引 18
ABS 3

中文导读

提出一种简单方法,在非寿险定价中放松索赔次数与金额独立的假设,通过将次数作为协变量引入平均索赔金额模型来刻画相依性,并给出纯保费的乘积形式及修正项。

Abstract

Traditionally, claim counts and amounts are assumed to be independent in non-life insurance. This paper explores how this often unwarranted assumption can be relaxed in a simple way while incorporating rating factors into the model. The approach consists of fitting generalized linear models to the marginal frequency and the conditional severity components of the total claim cost; dependence between them is induced by treating the number of claims as a covariate in the model for the average claim size. In addition to being easy to implement, this modeling strategy has the advantage that when Poisson counts are assumed together with a log-link for the conditional severity model, the resulting pure premium is the product of a marginal mean frequency, a modified marginal mean severity, and an easily interpreted correction term that reflects the dependence. The approach is illustrated through simulations and applied to a Canadian automobile insurance dataset.

非寿险精算广义线性模型保险索赔建模相依性建模