Persuasion as a contest
研究了说服概率如何取决于双方投入的资源，用贝叶斯方法分析观众仅根据证据做推断，发现加性竞赛成功函数和广义差分函数形式，并识别出真相、观众偏见和资源投入三个决定因素。
We examine how the probability of persuading an audience depends on resources expended by contending parties as well as on other factors. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the audience makes inferences solely based on the evidence produced by the contestants. We find conditions that yield the well-known additive contest success function, including the logit function. We also find conditions that produce a generalized “difference” functional form. In all cases, there are three main determinants of audience choice: (i) the truth and other objective parameters of the environment; (ii) the biases of the audience, and (iii) the resources expended by the interested parties.