Melting ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route
研究了北极冰盖融化使北方海路具备商业可行性后，对亚欧贸易流向、航运路线、实际收入及劳动力市场的经济影响，并指出其地缘政治与环境意义。
A consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting North-East Asia with North-Western Europe. This will represent a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and a decrease in the average transportation days by around one-third compared to the currently used Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of the opening of the Northern Sea Route. This includes a remarkable shift of bilateral trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic, and a substantial drop in traffic through Suez. These global trade changes are reflected in real income effects for the countries involved and moderate labour displacement for specific industries. The estimated redirection of trade has also major geopolitical implications: the reorganisation of global supply chains within Europe and between Europe and Asia, and the highlighted political interest and environmental pressure on the Arctic.