A Regional Compound Poisson Process for Hurricane and Tropical Storm Damage
针对美国大西洋沿岸飓风活动，提出一个完全贝叶斯区域预测模型，利用条件自回归模型处理风暴路径和空间模式，用于分析区域风暴趋势和定价保险保费。
Summary In light of intense hurricane activity along the US Atlantic coast, attention has turned to understanding both the economic effect and the behaviour of these storms. The compound Poisson–log-normal process has been proposed as a model for aggregate storm damage but does not shed light on regional analysis since storm path data are not used. We propose a fully Bayesian regional prediction model which uses conditional auto-regressive models to account for both storm paths and spatial patterns for storm damage. When fitted to historical data, the analysis from our model both confirms previous findings and reveals new insights on regional storm tendencies. Posterior predictive samples can also be used for pricing regional insurance premiums, which we illustrate by using three different risk measures.