Climate Instability, Urbanisation and International Migration
研究了气候冲击如何先推动农村劳动力向城市迁移，再因城市劳动力供给增加导致国际移民，预测未来几年气候导致的移民存量增长率在8.6%到12.8%之间，对发展中国家影响尤甚。
This paper focuses on climate-induced migration. We construct a simple theoretical model where, in a first step, climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector, leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders, while in a second step, downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a rich panel dataset, displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960–2000. Findings suggest that in the next few years the climate-induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8.6 per cent and 12.8 per cent, especially from developing countries, where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks.