Market Share Dynamics and the "Persistence of Leadership" Debate
提出一种分析市场份额领导地位持续性的新方法，利用当前份额与份额变化方差之间的经验标度关系，作为模型选择标准，并应用于日本制造业数据，可检验领导地位丧失的首次通过时间特性。
This paper introduces a novel analysis of the classic “persistence of leadership” question, and applies it to a newly constructed dataset for Japanese manufacturing. The analysis rests on an appeal to an empirical “scaling relationship” between current market share and the variance of changes in market share. This relationship provides a powerful “model selection criterion” for candidate models of market share dynamics. It also makes it feasible, even in small datasets, to test directly for the properties of the “first passage times” corresponding to loss of leadership.