The Effect of Social Security on Retirement in the Early 1970s
利用1969-1973年58-67岁男性的纵向数据，发现社会保障福利大幅增加是老年男性劳动参与率加速下降的主要原因，且存在流动性约束效应，忽略该效应会严重低估福利变化的财政影响。
We analyze detailed longitudinal data on a cohort of males aged 58–67 in 1969–1973, a period of substantial increases in real Social Security benefits. We find the following: (1) the accelerating decline in labor force participation of elderly men in 1969–1973 can be explained by the large increase in real Social Security benefits; (2) there is evidence of a liquidity constraint effect for an important subgroup of the elderly; (3) the magnitude of this induced retirement effect is large enough that ignoring it can lead to serious underestimation of the fiscal implications of changes in benefit provisions. Our results are interpreted in the historical context of a particular cohort undergoing major, unanticipated transfers of wealth; the steady-state effects of Social Security on retirement may not be the same.