Learning from Inflation Experiences *
提出人们会过度加权自己一生中经历的通胀来形成预期，并用57年消费者调查数据证实，年轻人在高通胀时期（如1970年代）与老年人预期分歧大，且这种差异影响家庭借贷和抵押选择。
Abstract How do individuals form expectations about future inflation? We propose that individuals overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes. This approach modifies existing adaptive learning models to allow for age-dependent updating of expectations in response to inflation surprises. Young individuals update their expectations more strongly than older individuals since recent experiences account for a greater share of their accumulated lifetime history. We find support for these predictions using 57 years of microdata on inflation expectations from the Reuters/Michigan Survey of Consumers. Differences in experiences strongly predict differences in expectations, including the substantial disagreement between young and old individuals in periods of highly volatile inflation, such as the 1970s. It also explains household borrowing and lending behavior, including the choice of mortgages.