The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Unemployment
研究了近三十年消费者信贷获取的增加如何影响商业周期，发现信贷扩张和收缩加剧了经济衰退的深度和持续时间，且对就业波动的影响越来越大。
Abstract Unemployed households’ access to unsecured revolving credit more than tripled over the last three decades. This article analyses how both cyclical fluctuations and trend increases in credit access impact the business cycle. The main quantitative result is that credit expansions and contractions have contributed to moderately deeper and more protracted recessions over the last 40 years. As more individuals obtained credit from 1977 to 2010, cyclical credit fluctuations affected a larger share of the population and became more important determinants of employment dynamics. Even though business cycles are more volatile, newborns strictly prefer to live in the economy with growing, but fluctuating, access to credit markets.