Feeder Cattle Forecasting Models: An Econometric Study of Development and Performance
比较了基于期货价格的简单模型与考虑售价、增重成本和季节性的复杂模型在预测季度肉牛价格上的表现，发现复杂模型预测更准确。
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to identify whether an intricate forecasting model which takes into consideration selling price, cost of gain, and seasonality will perform better at forecasting quarterly feeder cattle prices than a simpler model based only on the futures price of feeder cattle. Although both models exhibited good forecasting ability, econometric calculations demonstrated that the complex model had more accurate forecasting ability than did the futures model. Both models performed similarly in their ability to predict the directional movement of feeder cattle price.