SMOKING AND MORTALITY: NEW EVIDENCE FROM A LONG PANEL
利用近50年男性数据，通过联合估计吸烟行为与健康结果，纠正偏差后得出终身吸烟者比非吸烟者平均早死4.3年，为公共政策提供更准确的依据。
Abstract Many public health policies are rooted in findings from medical and epidemiological studies that fail to consider behavioral influences. Using nearly 50 years of data from the Framingham Heart Study's male participants, we evaluate the longevity consequences of different lifetime smoking patterns by jointly estimating smoking behavior and health outcomes over the life cycle, by richly including smoking and health histories, and by flexibly incorporating correlated unobserved heterogeneity. Unconditional difference‐in‐mean calculations that treat smoking behaviors as random indicate a 9.3‐year difference in age of death between lifelong smokers and nonsmokers; our findings suggest the bias‐corrected difference is 4.3 years.