Estimation of Vulnerability to Poverty Using a Multilevel Longitudinal Model: Evidence from the Philippines
利用菲律宾2003-2009年面板数据，用三水平随机系数模型测量家庭贫困脆弱性，并将其分解为异质性和协变量成分，发现多数贫困家庭和18%的非贫困家庭易受不可观测冲击影响，且异质性冲击影响更大。
Using the panel data for the Philippines in 2003–2009, we estimate a three-level random coefficient model to measure household vulnerability and to decompose it into idiosyncratic and covariate components. We correct heterogeneity bias using Bell and Jones’s ‘within-between’ formulation. A majority of the poor and 18 per cent of the non-poor are found to be vulnerable to unobservable shocks, while both groups of households are more susceptible to idiosyncratic shocks than to covariate shocks. Adequate safety nets should be provided for vulnerable households that lack access to infrastructure, or are larger in size with more dependents and less-educated heads.