Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains
基于国家间投入产出模型，利用世界投入产出表数据，测量了中国和美国在信息通信技术出口中的微笑曲线，揭示了参与全球价值链对增加值、就业及不同技能水平劳动者的影响，为理解全球化反弹和贸易保护主义提供了实证支持。
Abstract The logic of the ‘smile curve’ in the context of global value chains (GVCs) has been widely used in case studies of individual firms, but rarely identified at the country‐industry level by using real data. This paper puts forward a proposal, based on an inter‐country input–output model, to consistently measure both the gain of value added and the position of countries and industries when they join GVCs. This allows for better identification and mapping of economy‐wide smile curves in a given conceptual value chain. Using the World Input‐Output Tables, we identify the Information and Communications Technology exports‐related smile curves for China and the United States (US), which provide an intuitive and visual representation of who gains value added and jobs through joining GVCs, and to what extent. Further insight into the distributional implications of GVC expansion, based on our analysis of labour markets for China and the US, provides a strong support for the so‐called ‘Paradoxical Pair of Concerns’ between developed and developing countries. Our empirical results show that gains through joining GVCs may vary greatly across different skill levels of labour domestically, a fact that has, at least in part, been a driver of the backlash against globalization and the rise of trade protectionism.