CAN GUEST WORKERS SOLVE JAPAN'S FISCAL PROBLEMS?
通过代际交叠模型模拟客籍工人项目对日本财政的影响，发现适当规模和技能分布的客籍工人可缓解财政失衡，仅需适度提高消费税。
The labor force in Japan is projected to fall from 64 million in 2014 to 20 million in 2100, signaling unprecedented tax/transfer adjustments to achieve fiscal sustainability. In this paper, we develop a quantitative overlapping generations model to measure the impact of guest worker programs in Japan. Against a baseline general equilibrium transition in which the consumption tax adjusts to achieve fiscal sustainability, we compute alternative transitions with guest worker programs. Depending on the size and skill distribution of guest workers, these programs may mitigate Japan's fiscal imbalance problem with a relatively manageable increase in the consumption tax.