Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion
研究革命或货币攻击等危机为何罕见却常以浪潮形式出现，利用多国动态全局博弈模型揭示罕见性本身如何通过改变玩家预期成为重要传染机制，导致危机连锁爆发。
Crises, such as revolutions and currency attacks, rarely occur; but when they do they typically arrive in waves. The rarity of crises is an important contagion mechanism in a multiple-country dynamic global game model. When players are uncertain about the true model of the world, observing a rare success elsewhere can substantially change their expectations concerning the payoffs from attacking or defending the regime. Such dramatic revisions in beliefs, amplified by strategic complementarity in actions, may lead to a series of attacks in other countries. The crisis period can be long-lasting, but will eventually come to an end.